The leader of the Conservative Party started the election strong. His Conservatives were way behind in the polls when it began. Most of us didn’t know much about him. But then, he skyrocketed into the lead. For a moment, he looked like he might win.
That’s changed.
The conflicting promises O’Toole made to get different groups of voters onside might have helped his rise. But they also planted the seeds for his collapse.
I guess we won’t truly find out how big that collapse is till next week.
But it does raise some crucial questions: what exactly does the Conservative Party stand for? Is this really “not your grandfather’s Conservative Party?” Or are the hard-right Conservatives just holding back now so they can take control later?
O’Toole seems to change his positions on controversial issues depending on who he is talking to.
This suck and blow tendency is not new. During the Conservative leadership race, O’Toole won by flirting with Conservative members on the hard-right. He even hired Jeff Ballingal—the puppetmaster behind the growth of Canada Proud—as his campaign manager. He used Trump-lite slogans and tactics to win.
Once he’d won the race to become the leader of the Conservatives, O’Toole moved closer to the centre. This led to a split in the Conservative Party. The O’Toole camp is more socially progressive than Harper and mainly lives in cities and suburbs. This group supports issues usually off-limits to small-c conservatives, like climate change, unions, gun control, and LGBTQ rights.
The other camp within the party is socially conservative, largely rural, and more anti-establishment. Candice Bergen, the party’s deputy leader, is the most visible spokesperson for this camp. You may remember the photo of Bergen wearing the MAGA hat that was flying around Facebook and Twitter.
The tug-of-war has been put on hold during the election campaign. Of course, you have to look united if you want to win. But you can feel how hard both camps are gritting their teeth whenever O’Toole is asked about controversial issues.
Now that O’Toole’s support is tanking, other Conservative power players have already taken out their knives.
Just three days before the election, hardliner Pierre Poilievre launched what looks like a leadership campaign to replace O’Toole. Maybe Poilievre is still mad that O’Toole fired him as the party’s finance critic. His tagline makes him sound like he’s out for blood: “Do you want another lapdog? Or do you want a watchdog?” If O’Toole loses this election, he might lose the leadership, too.
Are you thinking of voting Conservative? If you are, ask yourself this: which camp will candidates Mary Lee (Courtenay-Alberni) and Shelley Downey (North Island-Powell River) support if elected?
Is your candidate an O’Toole-style Conservative? Or is she a Pierre Poilievre-style Conservative?
You won’t find any clues on their Facebook feeds. Instead, they’re filled with canned Conservative talking points from party headquarters. Unfortunately, there isn’t much local content.
So where do candidates Lee and Downey stand on the issues causing the split within the party?
As a voter, it’s up to you to decide what you think is important. These are some questions we feel are essential, and we’d like answers.
1. O’Toole pissed off the hard-right camp in the party by telling Quebequers he wouldn’t take back the ban on military-style assault rifles when his platform clearly states he will.
Question: Would Lee and Downey vote to take back the ban on military-style assault rifles?
2. Conservatives are also fighting about economic policy. O’Toole has tried to reach out to union members. He has also attacked corporate profits. He complained that Trudeau’s COVID relief funds weren’t doing enough for small businesses and workers, but the hard-right camp wanted O’Toole to say they were wasteful and expensive. The fight got worse when O’Toole fired Poilievre, his popular finance critic, last February.
Question: Do Lee and Downey support more COVID relief spending? Or are they on the side of the anti-vax, anti-mask libertarian camp?
The party is split over O’Toole’s decision to have policies on climate change. He even supports carbon pricing. He opposed the carbon tax when he was running for leader. He even promised that he would never bring in such a tax. But then changed his stance after he won the leadership race. His flip-flop on carbon pricing pissed off hardliners, especially those in the oil sands. Western Conservatives felt abandoned. O’Toole lost that battle when 54% of party members voted against him, and most of those votes came from the West.
Question: Do Lee and Downey support O’Toole’s carbon pricing plan?
The Conservatives are also split on social policy, especially when it comes to LGBTQ rights. Again, this split breaks down mainly along urban versus rural lines. It really flared up around the bill to ban gay conversion therapy. This controversial practice tries to force people to change their sexual orientation, gender identity, or gender expression. Although O’Toole and his more progressive camp supported the bill, over half the Conservatives in parliament voted against it. Bergen, the one with the MAGA hat, was the one who led that camp.
Question: Would Lee and Downey vote for or against the bill to ban gay conversion therapy?
The Conservative party will change after the election
Whether the Conservatives form the government or not, the party will need to change.
Chances are O’Toole won’t become the Prime Minister. So he will have to keep fighting angry Conservative members for control of the party. If they lose seats, O’Toole will likely be forced to quit, and there will be a new leadership race to replace him.
Even if O’Toole manages to win, individual Conservative MPs will be forced to chose sides. And they’ll still need to vote on controversial issues.
So VanIsle voters should know what kind of Conservatives Lee and Downey will be before they vote on September 20th.
Will they be socially progressive conservatives supporting COVID relief, action on climate change, and LGBTQ rights? Or will they want less spending, no climate policies, and attacks on LGBTQ rights like the hard-liners?
There are just a few days left to find out.
